THERAVADA JOURNEY: THE TRAIL OF SENTIMENTAL FAVORITE THERAVADA !
The trail leading up to the sentimental favorite Theravada making her second start of her career, for me, was full of pent-up excitement.
Had the seating or admission were limited and first come first serve only I would have camped out to get the front row seat (if it was an on-track attendance).
Luckily, where I live, it is a simulcast site and seating and admision were free and therefore camping out was not necessary.
Still, excitement and anticipation on my part were high and I was looking forward to enjoying my day at the racetrack where I live.
Theravada made her debut race on February 23, 2025, at Gulfstream park, in which, she finished third.
On Saturday April 12, 2025, Theravada made her second career start in a 1 1/16 miles maiden special weight race (purse $110k) on turf at Keeneland running against 11 other 3yo fillies in her own age and sex group.
Surprisingly she was off quickly from the out side post (post position 9) to prompt the pace set by an inside rival -- and from the start, the two were side by side all the way when passing the finish line for the first time.
The pair continued in that fashion throughout and around the clubhouse turn and into the backstretch with Theravada just a half length behind the fleeted foot inner rival on the outside of that rival while the rest of the horses were just one length back behind the duo leaders.
The two leaders and the rest of the field continued to race in that fashion to the quarter pole when Theravada took over the lead from her early (fleeted foot) rival and she continued to race gamely thereafter to the top of the stretch when the rest of the field seemed to be closing in on Theravada.
But despite prompting fast fractions Theravada fought back gamely while still holding the lead to deep stretch -- inside the eight pole -- when she got tired and weakened noticeably to finish seventh, beaten 9 lengths as the 2-1 post time favorite in a full field of 12 3yo fillies.
The pace set by the pair was quick with the quarter of a mile in 22.68, half in 46.89, six furlongs in 1:12.17, one mile in 1:37.48, and final time of 1:44.34.
To put that into perspective, a first-level allowance race (120000N1X - purse $120k) for 3yo colts -- yes, 3yo colts -- run an hour later in the same card in a one-mile race (also on turf) had the quarter of a mile in 23.35, half in 48.87, six furlongs in 1:13.45, seven furlongs in 1:25.45, and the final time of 1:37.74.
Looking at the totality of the race being run in the first-level allowance race by 3yo colts and compare it to Theravada's race, which is a maiden special weight race for 3yo fillies and you'll see a stark difference between the two races.
Aren't colts suppose to be faster than fillies in races run in North America?
Note also that the colts have already won their respective race prior to this race while the fillies are still maiden and three of them are first-time starters.
Note also that the race for fillies is 1 1/16 miles while the race for colts is one mile and yet the fractions and the final time are faster in the race for fillies than for colts, i.e., the mile time for fillies is 1:37.48 while the final time for colts for the one-mile race is 1:37.74.
A well known paradym is that the longer the race the slower the pace and final time -- that is a universally well understood racing paradym.
And yet, the one-mile race for colts is much much slower than the race for fillies both in term of fraction and final times.
Looking at the field of the race for colts, it is full of Triple Crown nominated colts and most of them have competed multiple races with good running lines -- and some of them running against horses like River Thames, Grande, Owen Almighty, Johnaton's Way, East Avenue, and Ferocious.
One horse named Conquering Cat ran against River Thames and Rolando in a high-level ($75k) optional claiming one-mile race (Feb 1, 2025, at Gulfstream Park) won by River Thames, and prior to that race, Conquering Cat also ran in the Basford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs in June 2024.
As for Rolando, he is currently a candidate for the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on Derby Day undercard.
One horse, a Triple Crown nominee named Solid Left, ran against Tappen Street (Dec 28, 2024) and then on February 27, 2025, Solid Left chased Grande in the high-level ($75k) optional claiming 1 1/8 miles race (at Gulfstream Park) won by Grande.
Grande is among the second-tier horses in the Derby behind first-tier horses Journalism, Citizen Bull, Rodriguez, Tappan Street, Sandman, and Sovereignty.
One horse, States' Right, ran against Owen Almighty on their debut in a 5 1/2 furlong race on June 20, 2025 -- the race won by Owen Almighty.
States' Right was the 2-1 favorite in that one-mile first-level allowance turf race.
As a matter of fact, States' Right was the heavy favorite three of his last five races with very good running lines in all of his five races -- hence, he was sent off as the 2-1 favorite in that one-mile first-level allowance turf race.
Another horse, a Todd Fletcher-trained and Mike Repole $450,000 yearling purchase (by Into Mischief) named Assertiveness (a naming to remind us of Fierceness), won a maiden special weight turf race on March 8, 2025, at Gulfstream Park.
The point being is that, this race is full of very cream of the crop horses.
Another one that fit this category was a horse named Warlander who ran in the 1 1/16 miles Bourbon Stakes (Gr II) turf race and this horse is trained by Steve Assmusen.
Warlander was a $450,000 yearling purchase and he is by a turf sire Kitten's Joy.
Another horse named Mesero, a $535,000 yearling purchase trained by Dale Romans, ran against Johnaton's Way and Owen Almighty in the Oroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs (Sept 2024).
Mesero also ran against Ferocious and East Avenue in the Grade I Keeneland Breeders Futurity (October 2024), in which, he had a bad start.
Mesero finished fifth, beaten 11 3/4 lengths by East Avenue after jostled at the start while 8th out of the gate in a field of 11 (not bad).
Another horse is a well-bred colt from Canada who ran in the Cornerstone Futurity Stakes (Nov 2024) at Woodbine and in the Summer Stakes (Gr I) also at Woodbine -- both races were on turf.
One particular horse of interest running in that one-mile first-level allowance race is Ready for Peace (post 5) who broke his maiden first time out in a one-mile turf race at Colonial Downs in mid-August 2024.
Three weeks later Ready for Peace ran in a $1 million Juvenile Mile (one mile) turf race at Kentucky Downs on September 8, 2024, and he finished third beaten four lengths by the highly regarded Steve Assmusen-trained Tiztastic who is 5th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard standing.
[Note also in that $1 million Juvenile Mile (one mile) turf race at Kentucky Downs on September 8, 2024, another horse named Mika, a fleeted foot horse who dueled for the lead in that $1 million race but only to weaken to last of 11.
In that one-mile first-level allowance turf race Mika once again used his fleeted foot special to set the pace.
The point being is that, that allowance race was full of early speed horses and yet the fractions were slower than Theravada's race.]
Back to Ready for Peace:
Then Ready for Peace engaged in a cat and mouse tussle with Ferocious for the first half mile race behind a group of pace setters in the Grade I Keeneland Breeders Futurity (October 2024) which won by East Avenue.
In other words, Ready for Peace is a (cream of the crop) good horse who belongs with the best of the best of his generation by running against East Avenue, Ferocious, Tiztastic and many other highly regarded (cream of the crop) horses of his generation.
And yet, his one-mile race produced slower fractional and final times than the race for fillies in which Theravada was in.
Go figure that out!
To make a long story short, the one-mile race for colts is full of highly regarded horses -- as you can see from the detail description I just outlined -- horses with tons of experiences and abilities and yet the race for fillies that Theravada was in was faster than the colt's race in term of both the fractional and final times.
Let's put more perspective into Theravada's race and consider this race that was run two hours later in race 8 (at Keeneland) in a first-level allowance race (120000N1X - purse $120k) for 3yo fillies on turf running 1 1/16 miles, the same condition (120000N1X - purse $120k) as the race for the colts but differ in distance.
For the sake of comparison, this race is similar to Theravada's race in term of sex, age, and distance, but differ in the level of competition with this race is a first-level allowance race while Theravada's race was a maiden special weight race.
In this race there is a full field of 12 tough group of 3yo fillies that came from all over the world or have competed outside of the United States -- i.e., a Wesely Ward trained horse who competed in Royal Ascot (England) in the Albany Stakes (Gr 3); a horse from France that have competed in the Prix de la Porterelle and the Prix de la Lorie.
In the US there is a horse highly regarded enough to compete in the Grade II Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland in October 2024 running 1 1/16 miles on turf.
To top it all off in that first-level allowance race for 3yo fillies, there is a highly regarded 3yo filly named Atomic City that you may have heard of her for the fact that she competed in 2yo stakes races in 2024 when she was third behind the victor The Queen MG in the Adirondack Stakes for 2yo fillies at Saratoga in August 2024.
Atomic City then later ran against La Cara in the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs in September 2024.
Atomic City was not done yet when she finished off the year (2024) by running against Echo Sand in the Mrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland in October 2024 and then running against the highly regarded Impulse Buy in the Fern Creek Stakes at Churchill Downs in November 2024 to close out her 2yo year.
To make a long story short, this 1 1/16 miles race (120000N1X - purse $120k) for fillies is full of highly regarded horses -- horses with tons of experiences and abilities and yet this race was slower than Theravada's race -- granted Theravada didn't win the race but her fractions of the race was much faster than this race.
This race was comparatively slow considering that these horses are highly regarded stakes horses and yet they run the quarter of a mile in 23.39, half in 48.37, six furlongs in 1:13.76, one mile in 1:38.27, and the final time of 1:44.23.
Make no mistake, I'm not saying Theravada is better than these colts and fillies -- but I'm saying that Theravada had an excuse for running as poorly as she did, and her prompting of the quick pace early is one of the reasons she ran as poorly as she did -- especially toward the end in deep stretch.
The quick pace took a toll on her and her other fleeted foot rival who finished second to last of 12, beaten about 24 lengths.
Furthermore, this is her second race and judging by her past performance shown in the daily racing form she lacks conditioning and not as fit as most of her rivals in her past two races.
Case in point, in her debut race on Feb 23, she had only two workouts [Feb 15 4f :50.1 B 52/82, Feb 9 4f :49.2 B 42/58] and leading up to this race she had three workouts [Apr 2 4f :48.3 B 25/66, Mar 23 4f :50.4 B 31/44, Mar 12 4f :51.0 B 9/11].
Now compare to her rivals for both of her races they had a series of workouts and most of them had multiple races under their belt prior to facing Theravada.
So Theravada had a disadvantage in that category but she has the advantage by the fact that she is a well-bred horse with turf pedigree.
So I'm not the least discourage by her twice in defeat by pointing out all the facts and circumstances for both of her defeats.
As a matter of fact, I'm more impressed by the new dimension that she shown in this race where she showed a tremendous gate speed when she burst right out of the gate among the two fastest horses in the field while taking into account that this field contains a lot of quick fleeted foot 3yo fillies.
But she beat most of them right out of the gate except one -- the fleeted foot rival who had the inside post position.
Her mom, Cambodia, never had this kind of quickness, especially gate and early speed.
Cambodia was always off evenly among the 'not-so-fleet-foot' horses in midpack early and after a quarter of a mile then she mounted a rally to go after the leaders.
By half-way on the far turn she was usually in full flight keeping the leaders within her plain sight and by the time they turn for home she loomed a threat to the leaders as well as giving notices to the rest of her rivals that she means business.
To see Theravada showed a tremendous gate and early speed is something that I am very excited about her future.
Not only that, she is a big and tall filly with speed to match her smaller rivals.
I just hope that her connections, particularly her trainer and jockey, can use her speed to their advantage in employing the strategies and tactics of the race.
By the look of it she was not a head-strong filly -- meaning, she is not tough to turn her off bridle.
In other words, she is rateable and tacticable and can be a "push button" horse if they train her as such.
I hope her connections realize that after seeing her second race -- and I hope they see a tremendous apportunity to utilize her quick speed asset to their advantage.
We know that she has stamina through her breeding and we just know that she has speed also -- and speed combines with stamina is a recipe for greatness.
Now all Theravada needs is for her connections to realize her full potential and train her accordingly.
As for me, regardless of her connections realizing her full potential or not, I will still follow her trail of journey ahead.
Stay tuned!
P.S.
Speaking of trail, the Australian Triple Crown trail is this weekend (Saturday April 19) where the third and final leg, the Champagne Stakes, is taking place at Randwick Race Course.
It looks like a field of 10, not 16, is expected to be lining up for the final leg.
One horse that is not expected to take part in the final leg is the highly regarded Godolphin filly Tempted who just won the Percy Syke Stakes on April 12 as the favorite paying $5.70, $4.40, $3.60.
Hope you all heed my advice last week and made some money on Tempted.
ENJOY THE LAST LEG OF THE TRIPLE CROWN EVERYBODY!
SEE YOU ALL NEXT YEAR!
