Pick for Saturday July 6, 2024


Dwyer Stakes
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | PURSE: $200,000

Track: Belmont at the Big A

Surface: Dirt

Race: 2


Horse: Hades (ML 7-2)


Field (in post position order):

1. Billal (ML 8-5)
2. Hades (ML 7-2)
3. Domestic Product (ML 6-5)
4. Save the Trees (ML 4-1)



This is surprisingly very short field of four considering this is a grade III race with a purse of $200,000.

Nonetheless, it looks like a wide open race in my opinion.

In other words, any one of the four could win this race -- so I'm going for an upset with Hades.


Last time we saw Hades (and Domestic Product) in action was on June 15, 2024, in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park, in which, Hades
(and to some extend Domestic Product) dueled for the lead with four other horses from the start to the half-mile marker (on the backstretch) when Hades faded to next to last, trailing the leaders about 6 or 7 lengths.

At the three-furlong pole it looks like Hades was going to finish last beaten by a mile considering he was dueling from the start with the jockey was ridding him aggressively the whole way without a breather.

I thought he was going to finish last and maybe being pulled up by the jockey due to exhaustion - running out of gas.

But to my (and perhaps everyone's) surprise, Hades found a new rejuvenated life by rallying from the far turn to finish third.

From the far turn and continued to the home turn, Hades was very wide throughout - maybe 6 to 7 wide on the turn and then continued to be 7 wide turning for home, losing a lot of ground compared to his competitors.

In the stretch he put in a tremendous run despite his early dueling fiasco and wide turn.

It tells me had he had a descent trip he would have given the winner a run for the money.

The winner, who had a dreamed trip, was Tuskan Sky and the second-place finisher was Domestic Product.

Yesterday (July 3, 2024) trainer Joe Orseno said he had not expected such a (hot-pace dueling) forward battle in the Pegasus Stakes by Hades.

"I may have over-instructed Paco that day, and we talked about it since," Orseno said.

"I thought the 4 horse (Willy D's) would go, but I never expected Chad's horse (Domestic Product) to be up there gunning for the lead either.

Paco said he wanted to take him out of there really bad, but he wanted to listen to instructions," Orseno said.


A good jockey would've ignored trainer's instruction when things didn't go the way the trainer thought.

Bad! Bad! Bad!


Orseno added blinkers for Hades' last two outings but said he will remove them for the Dwyer.

"Paco will have free rein to ride it how it comes up," Orseno said.

Good jockey would not need to be told what to do in certain situations.

It need not come to this at all.


Orseno said: "He'll come from off the pace if it plays out that way.

We know now to leave him alone and let him run.

In a short field someone can get away from you, but we'll ride it the way it comes up," Orseno said.



So I'm betting against Domestic Product today because he had a much better trip last time against Hades.


So bet Hades (ML 7-2) to win.

Yes, that is right: WIN and you should be going home as a winner.

Put some considerable amount of money on Hades to win to make it worthwhile and justified going to the racetrack.

Hades' final odd will most likely be right around 5/2 as a second or third choice in the betting.

Take this easy money 7/2 (or at whatever the price is -- 5/2 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.


There you have it: Easy money!


BONUS:

This race, in my opinion, is a two-horse race between Domestic Product and Hades (that's the way I see it).

This means that you can play this race using a "two-horse" race angle by betting Hades to win and then hedge that win bet by betting an exacta using Domestic Product over Hades.

How much to hedge?

A probable exacta payoff with Domestic Product over Hades will be right around $8.

This means that you divide the amount of win bet on Hades by $8 and using the result to bet the exacta to hedge.

For example, $50 win on Hades, $50 / $8 equals $6.25.

So bet exacta $6 Domestic Product over Hades.

Simple enough?