Picks for Saturday July 27, 2024
LET'S SPEND THE JIM DANDY SATURDAY AT SARATOGA BETTING RACES AND WHAT BETTER THING TO DO THAN BETTING HORSES ON MULTIPLE RACES -- OH BOY! -- MULTIPLE RACES! -- ARE WE EVER?
SO THE BEST WAY TO DO THAT IS TO USE A BETTING METHOD CALLED "PARLAY BETTING".
In a parlay betting, we choose three races of our own choosing, and those three races that we choose are called legs: 1st leg, 2nd leg, and 3rd leg.
In the parlay betting, we need to look for the last leg (leg three) first, and then after that, we look for the other two legs (1st and 2nd leg) later.
But the other two legs (1st and 2nd leg) must come or go off before the last leg, the 3rd leg.
WELL NOT SO FAST!
ONCE SINCE A WHILE I TEND TO BREAK THE RULE AND ON THIS JIM DANDY SATURDAY I WILL DO JUST THAT BY BREAKING THE "PARLAY RULE" AND INSTEAD OF THREE LEGS (as normally is the case) IT WILL BE FOUR LEGS -- YES, THAT IS RIGHT: FOUR LEGS!
So knowing that, we must find the fourth and last leg and the other three legs accordingly.
AS STATED ABOVE THE FIRST THING WE NEED TO DO IS TO LOOK FOR THE LAST LEG HORSE FIRST AND THEN LOOK FOR THE OTHER PRECEDING THREE LEGS HORSES NEXT.
LET'S DO THAT NOW!
ON THE JIM DANDY SATURDAY'S CARD AT SARATOGA -- OH, BOY! -- WE HAVE A "CINCH" HORSE IN SUBROGATE [ML 9-5] IN THE ALFRED G. VANDERBILT HANDICAP (Race 6) AND AS WELL AS FIERCENESS AT SARATOGA RACE COURSE (Race 10).
SPEAKING OF A "CINCH" HORSE, WE MIGHT AS WELL PUT INVICTUS IN THAT CATEGORY, TOO!
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE THREE CINCH HORSES TO WORK WITH THIS SATURDAY!
In race 7 at Saratoga Invictus and Uncaged is a coupled entry, with Invictus is trained by Brad Cox and Uncaged is trained by Todd Fletcher -- two of the best trainers in the nation and we have them training our cinch horses.
How could I not put the entry -- particularly Invictus-- in the "cinch" horse category?
It is an easy decision (in my opinion).
Invictus, a 2-year-old colt by Into Mischief is the first foal out of 2019 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Serengeti Empress.
Trained by Brad Cox, Invictus was bred by Joel Politi, who also campaigned Serengeti Empress.
Invictus debuts in a maiden special weight going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track (race 7 at Saratoga) for owners CHC, Siena Farm and WinStar Farm.
But in the same race, American Promise, a 2-year-old colt by Justify, is a half-sibling to Grade 2 winner Hoosier Philly.
Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, American Promise is owned by BC Stables.
Lukas is not known to crank up his 2yos early, particularly in their debut race, so I don't expect American Promise to threat Invictus in this race.
This means that, we have three legs that contain cinch horses.
Music to my ears!
WE'LL USE FIERCENESS AS OUR FOURTH LEG "CINCH" HORSE FOR THE PARLAY SPECIAL.
The idea is to build up as much money for the last leg as you can since the last leg is a cinch horse and the odd on the last leg is likely to be a very short price horse.
In my opinion, the last leg horse Fierceness is a cinch horse -- meaning, he is likely to win the 10th race Saturday at Saratoga.
His odd will likely be right around 2/1 second choice behind Sierra Leone whose odd will likely be right around 7/5 or lower.
Now what's left is to find the other three legs horses and here they are:
This is the first leg.
LET'S START THE PARLAY OFF WITH A BANG!
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | PURSE: $110,000
Track: Saratoga
Surface: Dirt
Race: 4
Horse: Speak Easy (ML 1-1)
Field (in post position order):
1. Notah (ML 10-1)
2. Kunshan Bridge (ML 12-1)
3. General Banker (ML 8-1)
4. Mariachi (ML 6-1)
5. Speak Easy (ML 1-1)
6. Leddy (ML 50-1)
7. Be the Boss (ML 5-1)
8. Edified (ML 15-1)
9. Forrest City (ML 8-1)
Last time we saw Speak Easy in action was in the loading process of the starting gate for the Bluegrass Stakes on April 6, 2024, in which, he was unruly in the starting gate that resulted him injuring himself and the steward ordered him scratched from the Bluegrass Stakes.
At that time he was highly regarded as the Kentucky Derby contender and perhaps might have ended up as the second choice in the betting for the Derby behind his stable mate Fierceness had he was able to run and win the Bluegrass Stakes.
So based on that, we'll play him and hopefully he'll start the first leg off with a "BANG".
I think he will.
So bet Speak Easy (ML 1-1) to win and you should be going home as a winner.
Speak Easy's final odd will most likely be right around 3/5 as a very heavy favorite in the betting.
Take this easy money 1/1 (or at whatever the price is -- 3/5 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.
There you have it: Easy money!
This is the first leg of the parlay betting -- so Speak Easy should start off our first leg with a BANG!
This is the 2nd leg.
PARLAY SPECIAL CONTINUES
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | PURSE: $350,000
Track: Saratoga
Surface: Dirt
Race: 6
Horse: Subrogate (ML 7-2)
Field (in post position order):
1. Nakatomi (ML 5-2)
2. Twisted Ride (ML 20-1)
3. My Buddy B (ML 20-1)
4. Baby Yoda (ML 7-2)
5. Subrogate (ML 7-2)
6. Skelly (ML 6-5)
Subrogate is the first cinch horse in our parlay special and he should win this race in a romp despite having to go against a very likely 3/5 heavy favorite Skelly [Mark my word: ROMP!].
Here is a detail description of what I wrote about Subrogate two weeks ago on July 8, 2024:
A 4-YEAR-OLD COLT CAUGHT MY EYES!
Subrogate, a 4-year-old colt by Arrogate, ran a race of his life when he won a 6 1/2-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer on Saturday June 29, 2024, at Belmont at the Big A (race 9).
The son of Arrogate is 0-for-3 running long, but he brought his sprinting record to 4-for-4 (and his 2024 tally to 3-for-3) including his runaway win Saturday (June 29, 2024) in which he earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form.
Subrogate, trained by Jorge Duarte and ridden by Jose Lezcano, was among the quickest off the gate -- as a matter of fact -- it seemed like the whole field was quick when all of the horses were fighting for the lead.
But after 70 yards or so two horses (Factuallycorrect and Subrogate) emerged as the clear leaders with Factuallycorrect just a half-length in front of Subrogate while the rest of the field bunched up behind the two leaders just one to two lengths back.
They all continued to race in that fashion to the far turn and around to the top of the stretch when Subrogate took over the lead from Factuallycorrect and sprinted clear to dominate by six lengths at the wire.
What so impressive about the performance by Subrogate was that he was always prominent in the early stages of the race, pressing the quick fractions of 22.85 and 45.09 seconds before taking over to dominate by six lengths.
And he was pulling away from the field in each of every stride, looking like he can go more than seven furlongs in top competition.
Typically, when a horse run that kind of fast early fractions the horse slows down in the latter stages of the race -- but not Subrogate -- he ran each fraction faster than the one prior.
The best is almost certainly still to come for Subrogate.
The 4-year-old colt ran his final sixteenth of a mile in a strong 5.98 seconds to clock a final time of 1:15.45, earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form.
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM MY WRITING SUBROGATE IS THE NOW HORSE AND THIS SATURDAY HE'LL WIN IN A ROMP (in my opinion).
So bet Subrogate (ML 7-2) to win.
Yes, that is right: WIN [and no bother to bet it to place either because I feel very confident in Subrogate (ML 7-2) to win].
Subrogate's final odd will most likely be right around 2/1 as a second choice in the betting behind the likely 3/5 very heavy favorite Skelly.
This is the easiest 7/2 money you'll ever going to get on the card at Saratoga or at any other racetracks on this Saturday July 27, 2024 [beside Invictus, Saratoga race 7].
As stated per "parlay rule", if there is any amount resulted from the first leg you have to bet all of that amount on this leg by budgeting your parlay bankroll and bet this race accordingly using triple down betting strategy.
This is called parlaying the bets -- you have to use all of the money from the previous leg on this leg.
What happens if not enough money (or no money left) for this race?
You have to decide if you want to put more money into the parlay scheme or not -- it's your money and it's your decision.
If it's my money and my decision, I would put more money into the parlay scheme; after all, it's just any other ordinary bet(s) -- you don't stop betting just because you lose one or two bets -- you continuing on betting in the next legs regardless of what happened in the first or second leg.
That's what I would do, especially the last leg, which is the bread and butter leg -- the leg that pays the bills.
This is the 3rd leg.
PARLAY SPECIAL CONTINUES
6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | PURSE: $100,000
Track: Saratoga
Surface: Dirt
Race: 7
Horse: Invictus (ML 3-1)
Field (in post position order):
1. T Kraft (ML 10-1)
2. American Promise (ML 20-1)
3. Invictus (ML 3-1)
4. Chancer McPatrick (ML 4-1)
5. Fiddling Felix (ML 15-1)
6. Noble Confessor (ML 6-1)
7. Restore (FR) (ML 10-1)
8. Sherman Fury (ML 20-1)
9. Tharhom (ML 4-1)
10. Tiztastic (ML 6-1)
11. Uncaged (ML 3-1)
Note: The above entry lists the horse's post position # and not saddlecloth number.
Coupled entry:
Invictus (ML 3-1) and Uncaged (ML 3-1)
So bet Invictus (ML 3-1) to win and place using double down betting strategy.
Invictus's final odd will most likely be right around 7/5 as a heavy favorite in the betting.
This is the easiest 3/1 money you'll ever going to get on the card at Saratoga or at any other racetracks on this Saturday July 27, 2024 [beside Subrogate, Saratoga race 6].
As stated per "parlay rule", if there is any amount resulted from the previous legs you have to bet all of that amount on this leg by budgeting your parlay bankroll and bet this race accordingly using double down betting strategy.
This is called parlaying the bets -- you have to use all of the money from the previous leg on this leg.
What happens if not enough money (or no money left) for this race using double down?
You have to decide if you want to put more money into the parlay scheme or not -- it's your money and it's your decision.
If it's my money and my decision, I would put more money into the parlay scheme; after all, it's just any other ordinary bet(s) -- you don't stop betting just because you lose one or two bets -- you continuing on betting in the next legs regardless of what happened in the first or second leg.
That's what I would do, especially the last leg, which is the bread and butter leg -- the leg that pays the bills.
This is the 4th and last leg -- the leg that pays the bills.
"PAYS THE BILLS?"
OH!, BOY! -- ARE WE EVER?
THE PARLAY PLAY CONTINUES!
Jim Dandy Stakes
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | PURSE: $500,000
Track: Saratoga
Surface: Dirt
Race: 10
Horse: Fierceness (ML 9-5)
Field (in post position order):
1. Sierra Leone (ML 1-1)
2. Seize the Grey (ML 6-1)
3. Batten Down (ML 5-1)
4. Pony Express (ML 20-1)
5. Gould's Gold (ML 15-1)
6. Fierceness (ML 9-5)
Last time we saw Fierceness in action was in the Kentucky Derby, in which, he went for a three-prong battle for the lead right out of the starting gate.
Any sensible horse player would know that Fierceness can't win any race let alone the 1 1/4 miles Kentucky Derby by going for a three-prong battle for the lead from start to finish.
Here is an excerpt of my observation after the race of this year's Kentucky Derby:
AS FOR FIERCENESS, WHAT A BONEHEAD RIDE BY JOHN VELAZQUEZ
I'm really disappointed in the way John Velazquez rode Fierceness in the Kentucky Derby this past weekend.
John Velazquez is a world-class jockey and yet he rode Fierceness like he was a rookie jockey by taking Fierceness right up to the very fast pace for a three-prong battle for the lead.
Unbelievable!
RACE-RIDING 101: Whenever there is a speed duel, you sit behind a speed duel -- or at least try to -- and wait and wait until that speed duel callapses and falls apart, and then you take over the lead -- NOT A ROCKET SCIENCE!
And yet, John Velazquez didn't do that!
He didn't even try to do that!
WHAT A BONEHEAD RIDE BY JOHN VELAZQUEZ!
I get it that Fierceness was a little keen to run but that's what happens when you take the horse to the plank of the other speed duel (Just Steel and Track Phantom), making Fierceness want to go up and compete -- in which he did -- to make for a three-prong battle for the lead.
This is a classic speed duel race-riding tactic:
You pull Fierceness back and stay behind Just Steel and Track Phantom for as long as you can and then you go and take over the lead at a certain point in the race -- i.e., when the pace collapses.
NOT A ROCKET SCIENCE!
Here is an excerpt from DRF:
[
In the Derby, Just Steel was part of a three-horse speed duel along with Track Phantom and Fierceness.
"We got roughed up leaving there, then we put up 22, 46.
That eliminates you right there in those races," Lukas said.
"I don't know if you can even fathom those fractions and keep going."
]
WHAT A BONEHEAD RIDE BY JOHN VELAZQUEZ!
In this race I don't see that kind of scenario happening as Batten Down is the lone speed in the race with Fierceness tracking him one or two lengths behind, and hopefully John Velazquez realizes that he is a world-class jockey and not going up for a two-prong speed duel this time.
As for Sierra Leone, he's a deep closer -- and with a small field and lacks a suicidal speed duel upfront he'll have a hard time making up grounds in the stretch -- so I think he'll come up short again in this race.
So bet Fierceness (ML 9-5) to win and place using double down betting strategy.
Fierceness's final odd will most likely be right around 2/1 as a second choice in the betting behind a very likely 3/5 heavy favorite Sierra Leone.
Yes, I expect Fierceness to win the Jim Dandy Stakes and everything points to him running a huge race with the very heavy favorite Sierra Leone running against a speed favoring track like Saratoga all Spring/Summer long thus far.
Yes, that is right: Saratoga has been favoring speed all spring and summer thus far and this Saturday will continue that trend.
Take this easy money 8/5 (or at whatever the price is -- 2/1 is my guess) and leave the racetrack as a winner.
There you have it: Easy money!
MAKE SURE TO USE ALL OF THE ACCUMULATED MONEY ON THIS LEG!
