HORSE WATCH STABLE




I am adding Just a Touch to my "Horse Watch" stable this week based on his performance on Saturday March 1, 2025, at Fair Grounds, race 6, 1/16 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $53,000.

He set the pace leading by a length or two throughout the first three furlongs, he then increased the margin to a sizeable lead from thereon to win the 1 1/16 race comfortably by 10 1/2 lengths.

Granted the race was for a second-level allowance condition and his competition was really un-inspiring, to say the least, but the manner in the way he won the race, especially his fraction and final times, suggests he'll be a force to be reckoned with in the older division this year (2025).

It looks to be a high-quality division for older horses this year with Locked garners the top rank based on his last two (and perhaps 3) races, especially his win in the Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday March 1, 2025, in which, he won in a dominance fashion by winning the race by 8 1/4 lengths, earning a whopping Beyer Speed Figure of 111.

I do not have access to Just a Touch Beyer Speed Figure as of this writing, but based on his final time of the race, I would guess that it would be close to Locked Beyer Speed Figure's win in the Santa Anita Handicap.

I would guess a Beyer Speed Figure of 108 to 110 for Just a Touch for winning his second-level allowance race.

The track record for the 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds stands at 1:42.01 held by a four-year colt named Olympiad since Feb 19, 2022.

Just a Touch's final time for his second-level allowance win was 1:42.23.

That is just 1/5 of a second of tying Olympiad's track record time.

That is an outstanding performance by Just a Touch based on his margin of victory, ease of victory, and final time -- so my prediction of Beyer 108 to 110 is just about right.

We'll see if my prediction is correct once I get access to his Beyer Speed Figure.

According to their respective trainers these two horses will not meet each other any time soon; and according to Todd Fletcher (Locked's trainer), he is indicating that Locked will not race until this summer -- perhaps in the Whitney Stakes, the Woodward Stakes, the JC Gold Cup, and the Breeders' Cup Classic -- while Brad Cox is indicating that he is targeting Just a Touch toward the Oaklawn Handicap, the Alysheba (at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend), Stephen Foster, and a prep race or two leading up to the Breeders' Cup Classic.

So it appears that these two will not meet each other until the Breeders' Cup Classic.

For me, it could be a good thing as I don't want Just a Touch to face Locked any time soon as I intend to bet on Just a Touch wherever he runs the next couple of races.

So it is music to my ears!

Cox is indicating that he intends to run either First Mission or Just a Touch or both of them in the Oaklawn Handicap on April 19, 2025.

After that, the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 2, 2025 (Ky Derby Weekend), is the most logical race for Just a touch.

First thing first: The Oaklawn Handicap on April 19, 2025.



UPDATE: March 10, 2025

Just a Touch earned Beyer Speed Figure of 102 for his second-level allowance win on March 1, 2025.

Kind of low, I think!

Beyer Speed Figure of at least 106 to 108 would be acceptable in my opinion considering he was only 1/5 of a second of tying the track record time.

Just a Touch ran one hell of a race and he only got a Beyer Speed Figure of 102?

Unreal!




THESE TWO HORSES CAUGHT MY EYES



Mister Lincoln is a 4-year-oldd gelding by Constitution and is out of a Grade 1 winner Hot Dixie Chick.

He's a half-brother to millionaire Pauline's Pearl, who captured the La Troienne Stakes (G1) last year 2024 (at Churchill Downs).

Mister Lincoln demolished a maiden claiming field at Penn National -- and the condition of the race:


6 Furlongs | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $22,500 | Purse: $21,578.


Trained by Jamie Ness, Mister Lincoln bumped a rival at the break but quickly established a command from an inside position, drawing clear around the far turn before driving home to a comfortable three-length victory.

While he debuted in claiming company, his impressive final time and perhaps, Beyer Speed Figure as well -- in which, I don't have access to as of this writing -- suggest he could rise through the ranks quickly.

In other words, he won't race in low-level claiming races in the immediate future.

The wagering public clearly knew what they had, as he went off as the heavy favorite sending him off as a 2-1 favorite in a solid field of 7 maiden claimers ($22,500).

His final time of 1:09.31 for a six-furlong race at Penn National was spectacular, to say the least, for a maiden $22,500 claimer at Penn National.

Having said that, on the same card Mr Lincoln broke his maiden in 1:09.31, $10K claimers ran 6F in 1:09.65 in race 1, then in race 4 a $10K claimer also ran 6F in 1:09.17.

So it's clear that the track was lightening fast that day.

Still a sub-1:09 for that track is rare.

So I'm definitely keeping my eyes on this 4yo gelding for a while and hoping to cash some tickets on him for his next few races.


Next up is Mo Swift, a 3-year-old filly by an unknown sire named Drill.

Mo Swift was the most dominant maiden winner of the week last week (2/26/2025), as far as my eyes is concern, as Mo Swift annihilated her competition by 16 lengths in the mud at Mahoning Valley.

Notice that I said "most dominant maiden winner" -- maiden winners.

That includes Todd Fletcher's two highly regarded 3yos with the first one is the Triple Crown trail candidate named Disruptor -- a 9 1/4-length romp at Gulfstream Park 03/01/2025 -- who is scheduled to run in the Florida Derby (03/29/2025) and Fletcher's other maiden winner is Valentinian, a 3-year-old colt by Into Mischief and is out of Rachel's Valentina, herself a Grade 1 winner and daughter of the legendary Rachel Alexandra.

Valentinian showed his class with a professional 3 1/4-length victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs on March 1, 2025.

Back to our main topic: Mo Swift (Drill - Mo Smart by Uncle Mo).

Her final time of 1:12.92 for a six-furlong (maiden sp wt) race at Mahoning Valley does not impress anybody (including myself) -- but the manner in which she won the race impresses me greatly -- after taking into consideration of the level of competition, the racetrack and other factors.

She annihilated her competition by 16 lengths in the mud at Mahoning Valley on February 26, 2025.

Her final time of 1:12.92 is not bad considering she was running freely on her own free-will without being pressured or urged by her jockey.

Trained by Penny Rone and ridden by Luis Rivera, this speedster seized command early and widened her advantage at every call, demonstrating superior ability despite drifting through the stretch.

Her margin of victory and the ease of victory is particularly impressive considering the track and company, suggesting she could be successful when facing tougher opposition at larger venues.

While modest pedigree might limit her ceiling, her raw talent cannot be denied, and she'll be a formidable presence in the Ohio-bred stakes program if her connections choose to keep her in state-restricted company.

I'm keeping my eyes on this 3yo filly and hope to cash some tickets on her next few races.