INAUGURAL VIRGINIA DERBY AND VIRGINIA OAKS GOT OFF TO A BANG!




This past weekend (Saturday March 15, 2025) we got to see Derby/Oaks prep races being held in the state of Virginia for the very first time.

Churchill Downs bought Colonial Downs two years ago and Churchill Downs decided to enhance the Triple Crown trail, particularly the Derby/Oaks prep races, by holding a 3-day spring meet beginning in 2025 to facilitate Derby/Oaks prep races at Colonial Downs.


The marquee two races are the Kentucky Derby prep, which is the Virginia Derby won by American Promise and the Kentucky Oaks prep, which is the Virginia Oaks won by Fondly.

The Virginia Oaks won by Fondly was a little weak but on the male side -- the Virginia Derby won by American Promise -- it was a very strong race and worthy of a legitimate Derby prep.

As a matter of fact, of all of the Derby preps thus far this year (2025) -- with the exception of the Risen Star won by Magnitude with a Beyer of 108 [and off Derby trail] -- the Virginia Derby won by American Promise was the most spectacular race in term of the final time of the race, the margin of the win and the ease of winning; how easy the winner made it looked.

Before this past weekend I thought that a maiden winner named Cornucopian would win this year's Kentucky Derby.

Here is an excerpt of what I wrote last week about Cornucopian's chances of winning the Derby:



ON THE MALE SIDE THE FUTURE BETTING IS WIDE OPEN


It's anybody's race at this point on the male side of the future betting -- but personally, I think Cornucopian is the likely Kentucky Derby winner this year -- that is my opinion.

We'll find out soon enough!

BONUS:

KY OAKS - DERBY DOUBLE: Formula Rossa (All 3yo field in this pool) / Cornupcopian



As you can see, I had a very strong feeling about Cornucopian's chances of winning this year's Ky Derby.

Now after witnessing the inaugural Virginia Derby I am not so sure that Cornucopian is going to win this year's Ky Derby if American Promise is in this year's Ky Derby along with Cornucopian, because at this point American Promise seems to be the better of the two and probably the better of all of the Derby hopefuls out there, in my opinion.

In other words, I just switched my Derby hopeful allegiance to American Promise from Cornucopian.

American Promise is now my new and only Derby hopeful going forward.

If you saw the Virginia Derby you probably are very impressed by American Promise performance -- I know I am.

So much so that I switched my Derby hopeful allegiance to American Promise from Cornucopian.

In a strong field of 8 3yos, including the highly regarded 9/5 second-choice in the betting Brad Cox trained Rapture and even more highly regarded Baffert-trained 4/5 favorite Getaway Car, American Promise was off quickly from the rail but just a few strides later Getaway Car (from position 4) quickly took over the lead from American Promise (whose the public made him the 7/1 odd 4th choice in the betting).

The two ran one-two with American Promise about 3/4 to a length behind Getaway Car while racing on the outside of Getaway Car and the two ran in that fashion from almost from the start to the top of the stretch when American Promise moved up to challenge Getaway Car for the lead.

The two continued to battle each other approaching the 8th pole when American Promise seized the control from Getaway Car and pulled away from Getaway Car to win (easy) going away by 7 3/4 widening lengths while the rest of the field put in a mild rally in the midst of a weakening Getaway Car, who finished fourth behind the surging second-place finisher Render Judgement and third-place finisher Omaha Omaha.

The pace of the race set by Getaway Car (and prompted on the outside by American Promise) was very strong with a quarter timed in 23.12, a half-mile in 45.20, six furlongs in 1:08.39, a mile in 1:33.02, and the finish time earned by American Promise for the 1 1/8 miles race was timed in 1:46.41.

The track record time listed as 1:47.18 which means that American Promise broke the track record by almost a full second -- 4/5 of a second to be exact.

That is specatcular!

Now you know why I switched my Derby hopeful allegiance to American Promise from Cornucopian.

IT'S A NO-BRAINER!!!

The track seemed fast but is comparable to Keenland's and Churchill Downs' racetracks.

To put into perspective, a track record time for the mile race at Colonial Downs listed as 1:33.64 and American Promise ran the mile in 1:33.02 while also breaking the mile track record time (as well) by 3/5 of a second.

Yes, that mile time was American Promise's time since by that time he was in front of Getaway Car.

However, the DRF gave American Promise a Beyer Speed Figure of 95.

That's kind of very low considering he broke a track record by 4/5 of a second.

I don't think the Beyer Speed Figure of 95 for American Promise any way indicates and deminishes his true accomplishment and ability, and I think he will prove to the Beyer Speed Figure calculator wrong in the next couple of races.

I will disregard his Beyer Speed Figure number for this race and say that the Beyer Speed Figure calculator must have mis-calculated the figure.

Anyhow, I'm very excited about American Promise's chances for the upcoming Derby in the first Saturday of May, and to some extend, I'm very excited about Cornucopian's chances as well since I'm still royal to Cornucopian due to the fact that I have been tracking him for so long since April 2024.

American Promise was bred in Kentucky by Everett Dobson's Candy Meadows LLC, out of the winning Tapit mare Tapella, whose three foals to race also includes Grade 2 winner Hoosier Philly. Dobson bought Tapella for $750,000 at the 2015 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale.

American Promise sold to BC Stables for $750,000 at the 2023 Keeneland September Sale, from the Candy Meadows Sales consignment.


Here is a story by Frank Mitchell that appeared on the Paulick Report on March 19,2025

Bloodlines Presented By Walmac Farm: American Promise Delivers On His Rich Pedigree

Both as a leading sire and now as a leading broodmare sire, Tapit (by Pulpit) is providing some essential ingredients to the genotype and phenotype of racing stock in the U.S.

Tapit, the great normalizer of American breeding, provides two qualities as a matter of course: he consistently adds balance and proportion to the foals of his mates, and as part of that contribution, he is a most consistent source of classic-quality performance.

In his role as broodmare sire, Tapit was represented by American Promise when that chestnut son of champion Justify (Scat Daddy) won the 2025 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on March 15.

In the event, American Promise raced alongside the odds-on favorite Getaway Car (Curlin), then pulled away through the stretch to win by 7 3/4 lengths from the Blame colt Render Judgment. The new track-record time of 1:46.41 was remarkably fast on a day of racing marked by swift times and bright sunshine.

Yet none shined brighter than the chestnut colt from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, and American Promise rose to fifth place among the points leaders for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, which will be run on May 3.

Bred in Kentucky by the Candy Meadows Farm of Everett Dobson, American Promise has improved notably this year, in a manner similar to the 3-year-old season of his sire. The colt began racing on July 24 last year (2024) but didn't win his maiden until his sixth start, Dec. 29 (2024).

After a couple attempts in strong graded company, American Promise broke through to earn his first black type with victory in the Virginia Derby in his ninth start, and he will go into the first classic as the most seasoned racer in the field, even if the Great Taskmaster does not find another stakes for the colt in the next six weeks before the Run for the Roses.

As a May 1 foal, American Promise has every reason to improve in the coming weeks, and the farm's senior vice president Matt Lyons said, "Wayne has always believed in American Promise, and he told Everett last September, when the colt hadn't done a lot, that "I'm going to make you famous next May."

"This colt was a big, gorgeous horse at the sale, had a good walk but not a huge walk, which a lot of people like to see, but Hoosier Philly didn't have one either. And it's satisfying when they turn out as nice as these two."

The now-5-year-old Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) is a G2 winner who won stakes at two, three, and four, and this season, she has placed in a G3 at Sam Houston and most recently was fourth in the G1 Beholder at Santa Anita.

They are out of the Tapit mare Tapella, who earned $149,150 without quite getting black type. Lyons said, "Todd Pletcher trained her. From eight starts, she won a maiden and an allowance, then got fourth in a graded stakes (the G3 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct), and she had plenty of talent."

As a yearling, the filly's racing potential and physical appeal had prompted Dobson to buy Tapella for $750,000 at the 2015 Saratoga select yearling auction.

"Everett liked her enough that he went out and bought the half-sister Ulele [Candy Ride], and we have the two sisters producing here at the farm. In 2025, Tapella has a Gun Runner colt on the ground, and Ulele has a Flightline colt," Lyons concluded.

Another Saratoga select yearling, Ulele won two races and placed second in the G2 Black-Eyed Susan and the G3 Iowa Oaks.

Their dam is the unbeaten Princess Arabella (Any Given Saturday), winner of the Sunland Park Oaks. Purchased as a broodmare prospect by Summer Wind Farm for $725,000 when carrying Tapella, Princess Arabella gave an immediate return with the sales of her two noted daughters.

"Tapella is a tall, strong, gray Tapit, not heavy-bodied, but a real quality mare," Lyons continued, "and American Promise was a big, strong colt. But just before the sale, he bumped the outside of his knee and gave us all heart attacks. He was a grand colt there in September, but people were looking at the knee, touching it, x-raying it. That left us explaining that there wasn't any pathology, just a superficial bump."

"Fortunately, some really good people believed what we were telling them, as well as the evidence of their eyes," and Candy Meadows sold the colt for $750,000 to BC Stables.

Now everyone is on board for the big chestnut colt as he gets on the train for bigger prizes in Kentucky.



HORSE WATCH STABLE




I am adding Lion of Justice to my "Horse Watch" stable this week based on his performance on Saturday March 15, 2025, at Colonial Downs, race 5, 1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $75,000.

Lion of Justice (Into Mischief - Ever So Clever, by Medaglia D’oro) is a $1.1 million KEESEP23 purchase trained by Brad Cox.

In a strong field of seven 3yo colts Lion of Justice won the one mile race as an even-money favorite in a fast time of 1:33.87 with a quarter timed in 23.13, a half-mile in 45.34 and six furlongs in 1:09.23.

Lion of Justice earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 92.

Also, on the same card (Saturday March 15, 2025), race 6, I am adding Verifire to my "Horse Watch" stable as well.

Verifire is a $1 million OBSMAR24 purchase trained by Brad Cox.

Verifire (Authentic - Ruby Trust, Smart Strike) won the six-furlong race very impressively, particularly inside the 16th pole when he seemed to pull away from the field and going away as if a mile and a quarter or mile and half is his playground.


CONDITION: 6 FURLONGS | Open | 3 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $75,000.


The fractions and his final time were very fast with a quarter timed in 21.81, a half-mile in 44.42, five furlongs in :56.10 and the final time of 1:08.14.

Very fast!

Verifire also earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 92.

That proves my point that the Beyer Speed Figure calculator is wrong in their calculation.

How could you gave Lion of Justice the same Beyer Speed Figure as Verifire?

Lion of Justice ran the six-furlong race a half-hour earlier on the same card in 1:09.23 and Verifire ran the same distance half-hour later but more than a full second faster than Lion of Justice did.

How could they both were given the same Beyer Speed Figure of 92 ?

I don't get it!


I am also adding Ancient World to my "Horse Watch" stable as well.

Ancient World is a $525,000 yearling purchase by the Repole Stable.

Another electrifying debut winner last week came from Ancient World, a 3-year-old gelding by Into Mischief trained by Joe Sharp for Repole Stable.

CONDITION: 6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $52,000

Times in 5ths: :21.3 :45.1 :57.3 1:10.1
Times in 100ths: :21.63 :45.37 :57.73 1:10.20


Despite breaking slowly in the six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds this past weekend March 13, 2025, race 8, Ancient World recovered to trail the field (in a field of 8) before splitting foes and rallying strongly to get up in time under Jose Ortiz.

For a gelding to close so much grounds first time out, especially after overcoming a troubled trip, makes this performance all the more remarkable.


One other noteworthy of mentioning this past weekend happened on Friday March 14, 2025, when Book'em Danno beat just two rivals -- yes, two rivals -- at Colonial Downs, race 7, after stalking a rival pace setter Celtic Contender to win the seven-furlong $150,000 Boston Handicap by 2 1/2-length over the late surging Repo Rocks with Celtic Contender regressed to last.

Book'em Danno earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure.

Book'em Danno scares off competition prior to the running of the Boston Handicap.

It's no coincidence that eight horses in the field of 11 were scratched Friday.

"I don't really blame anyone for scratching," said the victor's trainer, Derek Ryan.

"After the race, I'm sure they're all glad they did."

Book'em Danno went off as a 1-5 favorite over the overmatch Repo Rocks and Celtic Contender after 8 of 11 horses scratched.


With Paco Lopez up for trainer Derek Ryan, the Bucchero gelding got 7 furlongs in 1:20.03, just 0.17 second off the course record (or less than two-tenths of a second off the track record.)

The race was restricted to Virginia-bred or owned horses.


SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST


Lastly, on the same day as the previous above (Saturday March 15, 2025) at Gulfstream Park, race 8, I am adding Here Comes Francis to my "Horse Watch" stable as well.

CONDITION: 6 FURLONGS | Open | 3 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $94,000.

Here Comes Francis (Improbable - I Know That Mom, by Distorted Humor) is a $250,000 OBSAPR24 purchase trained by Victor Barboza Jr.

Here Comes Francis earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 97.

Sent off as the 9-5 second choice behind the highly regarded even-money favorite $3 million Todd Fletcher trained Vibe -- whom I picked and played to win -- Here Comes Francis exploded right out of the gate the fastest of all while the heavy favorite Vibe give chase behind him in 3rd.

From there he set a good pace to maintain the lead by 2 lengths throughout and all the way to the top of the stretch while the rest of the field tried to give chase but to no avail when Here Comes Francis turned on another gear in the stretch to win comfortably going away looking like a mile and a quarter (Derby) horse.

It probably is too late for the Derby but the Preakness and the Belmont are still in play for this very impressive debut winner.

The way he pulled away from the field in the end caught my eyes tremendously and I am very excited about this horse in the future.

He beat a very good group of 5 3yos containing well-bred, high-price racehorses, including the fore mentioned highly regarded even-money favorite $3 million Todd Fletcher trained Vibe (Into Mischief - Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker), Activity (Into Mischief - Sea Gull, by Mineshaft), Munyah (Into Mischief - Mufajaab, by Tapit).

Vibe is a kin to stakes winners Nonna's Boy and Outwork; Activity is a kin to multiple Grade 2 winner Catalina Cruiser, Grade I place Eagle and outstanding multiple Graded Stakes winner Royal Flag (trained by Chad Brown).

As you can see, Here Comes Francis beat a very good group of 5 3yos convincingly and impressively.

I'm very excited about Here Comes Francis' future.

The sky is the limit!